കkerala2040CET 2026 research companion

Evidence trail

Primary sources &
reproducibility.

Headline claims are tied to first-party or official sources wherever possible. Model artifacts are separated from source evidence so a simulation output is never mistaken for its own validation.

Primary evidence

Official sources behind the headline claims.

CEA · Kerala Generation Resource AdequacyDemand and peak planning trajectories; generation-RA context. CEA · Kerala Transmission Resource AdequacyRecorded peaks, TTC/ATC, transmission constraints and reinforcement planning. Kerala State Planning Board · Economic ReviewAnnual electricity statistics, population projections and state context. Kerala Department of Economics & StatisticsGeographical area and official statistics. KSEBL Dam Safety · IdukkiIdukki project/reservoir configuration and installed-capacity context. CIAL · AGM 2025Renewable capacity, daytime export and BESS-development context. Kochi Metro · project pageDocumented solar project configuration. Kerala Mining & GeologyChavara heavy-mineral/monazite resource context.

Research artifacts

The repository contains the model and audit trail.

Research synthesis

Research questions, findings, confidence boundaries and limitations.

Open synthesis ↗

Research plan

Diagnosis-first work-package structure and evidence logic.

Open plan ↗

Scientific QA verdict

Release verdict, supported claim tiers and disclosed limitations after the final red-team pass.

Open final verdict ↗

Costs, finance & markets

Research benchmarks retain their original boundary.

CEA · Optimal Generation Capacity Mix 2029–30, Version 2.02021–22 planning cost basis: solar, onshore wind and four-hour BESS assumptions. CERC · Order 12/SM/2026Debt/equity, loan, RoE and WACC-equivalent regulatory benchmarks. IEX · FY2023–24 Day-Ahead MarketAverage MCP ₹5.23759/kWh; weighted MCP ₹5.17449/kWh. Kerala Finance DepartmentState budget documents used for the 2025–26 power-sector allocation.
₹41,000/kW

CEA solar planning assumption.

₹60,000/kW

CEA onshore-wind planning assumption.

₹47,200–82,200/kW

CEA four-hour BESS planning range.

These are national planning/regulatory benchmarks, not realized Kerala project EPC costs or a Kerala project-specific WACC.

Hydro provenance

Source values and derived equivalents are kept distinct.

QuantityValueEvidence status
Idukki full reservoir storage1,460 MCMDirectly retained in FY2024–25 SLDC reservoir rows.
Full reported generation capability2,190 MUDirect source field; gross arithmetic ratio = 1,500 MWh/MCM.
Station energy equivalent used in v1.31,470 MWh/MCMMedian of station-generation-capability / effective-storage across 354 Idukki rows. Operational approximation, not a head/efficiency curve.
Idukki HEP780 MWKSEBL project/rule-level evidence; six 130 MW units.
Phase 5 catchmentNot admittedCandidate geometries did not pass independent reconstruction checks.

Network provenance

Structural evidence is stronger than exact loading magnitude.

KSEBL public topology

Grid maps, SLDs and historical power-system statistics support the 110-kV+ network structure and partial equipment evidence used by the screen.

CEA external check

The current Kerala transmission plan reports 200+100 MVA existing transformation at Shoranur and independently identifies the station and nearby corridors as constrained.

The older 2023 PSS snapshot is retained as historical model provenance, not current station configuration.

Reproducibility

Four useful levels of reproducibility.

LevelMeaningExample
R1 · IntegrityReleased artifact can be hash-checked and consumed deterministically.ERA5-sensitive v2 hourly payload.
R2 · TransformationRetained inputs + code regenerate a derived artifact.Most historical/model transformations.
R3 · Source-to-resultAcquisition + transformation + model reproduce a result, subject to upstream access.Several source-bounded model chains.
R4 · Independent implementationSeparate implementations reproduce the same mathematical result.PyPSA/SciPy and PyPSA/OSeMOSYS common formulations.
Known gap: the original ERA5-sensitive v2 fitting script and raw ERA5 archive are not committed. The released chronology is integrity-verifiable, but the original fit is not fully source-to-fit reproducible from a fresh clone.
Open research repository ↗Website release provenance